Reclusive North Korea: Nuclear test versus Oil embargo

By Sonny Atumah

Military storm in the Korean Peninsula crescendoed last Sunday with the launch nuclear missiles in the eastern coast city of Sinpo by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, DPR otherwise known as North Korea. The Korean exercise was part of the celebration to mark the 105th birthday of the late North Korean founder, Kim I– Sung, grandfather of the present strong man Kim Jong Un.

The missile launch which reportedly failed seconds after it was launched coincided with the movement of a United States super carrier USS Carl Vinson claimed to be on a show of force in the Peninsula. But there are reports that the United States cyber-attack made the intercontinental ballistic missile test to fail. The New York Times reported that shortly after launch, a number of the rockets exploded or veered off course. Former U.S. President Barack Obama, three years ago, was believed to have started the cyber and electronic warfare campaign against North Korea.

For about one month Washington and Beijing have been on the alert. The U.S. led Forces in the Pacific under its Commander, Admiral Harry B. Harris Jr. massively deployed aircraft carrier, USS Carl Vinson along with a wing of fighter jets, three guided missile destroyers and cruisers, and 28,500 troops to steam about the Peninsula in joint manoeuvres with South Korea. The Chinese also deployed 120,000 troops and medical supplies to its border with Korea.

The missile test was on a day the United States Vice President Mike Pence arrived Seoul, South Korea on a ten-day tour of the Asia-Pacific rim. Decked in a bomb jacket, Vice President Pence spoke from the truce village of Panmunjom on the 4km-wide Demilitarised Zone at the South and North Korea border. Panmunjom is on the buffer zone where the truce that suspended the 1950-53 Korean War was signed. The U.S. led forces and South Korea were pitted against North Korea and China in the war where thousands of troops died on both sides including 8,000 American personnel listed as missing.

Vice President Pence’s four-legged mission is to rally allies: South Korea, Japan, Indonesia and Australia on Pyongyang’s military actions as well as trade and economic ties. The lingering tensions in North East Asia have jolted contiguous states that have witnessed six nuclear tests by North Korea since January 2006. Washington has seen the missile test as provocative. Pence said that all options are on the table for North Korea adding that the era of strategic patience is over; the U.S. first confronted North Korea in 1992 over its attempt to build nuclear weapons.

The North’s action is viewed as threat to global peace and security and has elicited intense lobbies for sanctions to tame Pyongyang. But the North Korean Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations, Kim In-Ryong described the U.S. military exercises as the largest ever aggressive war drill which his country was ready to react to in any way desired by the US. Others say the United States had turned the Korean Peninsula into the world’s biggest hotspot and creating a dangerous situation in which a thermonuclear war may break out at any moment.

The North Korean existence is indeed solitary and withdrawn from the rest of the world. There doubts about the agent provocateur. Its traditional ally China joined other world powers including Russia on May 25, 2009 to impose sanctions on the DPR nuclear test. Watchers say President Trump placed much premium on Beijing to use its “extraordinary levers” as a major trade partner, to rein in North Korea; to abandon its weapons programme. Experts believe the United States insistence that it would deal with the threat unilaterally is what China had always opposed.

The Chinese do not want their interests undermined. Abundant coal from North Korea is used in China’s steel mills. That earns the North about US$1 billion used to pay for its nuclear weapons programme which China has agreed to stop. A tougher stance contemplated on North Korea is an oil embargo. It does underscore the importance of oil as an instrument of strategy and tact in global politics. North Korea depends on China for about 90 percent of its oil supplies. Data from South Korea indicates that North Korea gets about 500,000 tons of crude and the UN says about 200,000 tons of petroleum products from China goes to the DPR annually.

North Korea has two refineries, one in Ponghwa at the river border with China and the other Sungri on the Tumen River bordering Russia. Reuters reports that North Korea’s needs oil for transport, agriculture and the military. It is believed that if China cuts off oil supplies for three months, the North Korean economy would collapse. Diplomatic watchers believe that Beijing would mull over an oil embargo on Pyongyang for conducting nuclear tests. Although China is not comfortable having another nuclear neighbour it is equally considering a regime collapse and the refugee influx to China.

It is believed that stringent measures would whip North Korea in line for negotiations on its nuclear programme. But considering the grave impact China may veto a tough economic measure at the Security Council. The belief is that China would prefer a soft landing by reducing oil supplies to imposition of severe restriction of oil exports to North Korea. China has a major role to play as the main ally of North Korea.

 

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